NOWSHERA, Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province - The coalition government of
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, the brainchild of the United
States for an anti-Taliban political force that could effectively
fight and support the American war in South Asia, has proved itself
incompetent in the face of the country's unfolding flood disaster.
Devastating floods over the past month have affected more than 20
million people and laid waste a fifth of the country's land mass.
The real fear now is that in the much-anticipated anarchy in the
coming weeks, a fiercely anti-American Islamic revolution could
break out if correct and timely steps are not taken as the waters
recede and lay bare ruined lives.
Underscoring these fears, the latest in a string of bomb attacks
took place on Tuesday in the northwestern town of Kohat, killing 16
people and injuring more than 50. This took the number of people
killed in attacks in the past week to more than 120.
Zardari warned on Monday that the country’s "survival is being
threatened" by both extremism and flooding as insurgents take
advantage of the upheaval caused by the overflowing Indus River.
Millions of people are camping in the open, totally reliant on
foreign aid, Islamic charities and other social organizations in the
absence of government assistance.
At this stage, few people have an understanding or a plan for the
rehabilitation of these millions of people. Pakistani intellectuals
agree, though, that the floods have created a huge vacuum in the
country, already battered by multiple issues including terrorism and
insurgencies.
Displaced, dislodged, ignored, suppressed
As one enters Nowshera, a city in northwestern Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa
province, there is a large tent village, managed by an Islamic
charity, where displaced people live alongside their livestock.
As I left my car and approached the tents, people rushed towards me,
thinking I was going to distribute aid or money.
However, they remained equally enthusiastic when they learnt of the
presence of newsmen - they wanted to tell their stories.
They came from Wisalabad village, Risalpur, where about 150 of 200
houses were destroyed by the floods; the remaining homes are too
battered to live in.
"Sugarcane and sunflower were our main cash crops, but the flood
destroyed them all. Our houses have been destroyed, all we are left
with is some livestock, this is our only asset now," Ibrar Hussain
said.
None of the villagers owned farmland - they were all laborers.
"All farms belong to the feudals of Nowshera city. We are laborers.
After six months, we are bound to pay Ijarah [an
agreed amount of money] to the landowner. No matter that the flood
has destroyed everything, we still have to pay the Ijarah,"
a visibly upset Ibrar said.
Hussain and his fellow villagers had no idea where they would get
the money to pay the Ijarah,
but they were determined to get it somehow.
This is a big issue all over the country, especially in southern
Sindh province. Many people have left the fields and moved to the
southern port city of Karachi, saying they do not want to have to
pay Ijarah as
the land on which they had worked had been lost.
Most landowners in Sindh are either politicians or belong to big
political families and their influence runs everywhere, from the
legislature to the police station. They have the capacity to do
anything to force laborers to cough up the money.
The flood displaced these people, but the social and economic order
will throw them into permanent suppression. The state has turned a
blind eye to this, leaving the people to weigh their options, one of
which is to become a part of the anarchy that is emerging out of the
receding water.
Another side of the story
About two kilometers from the first tent village I visited was
another one, also with people from Nowshera displaced by the flood.
They had lived in the slums - taxi drivers, bricklayers and other
daily wage-earners.
Muhammad Nasir had a donkey cart in which he transported cement,
sand and other construction material. He earned about 200 rupees
(US$2.50) a day - all of which he spent, leaving him with no
savings. His donkey drowned in the floods and his mud house was
destroyed, leaving Nasir's family of five homeless, jobless and
penniless.
Said Bacha, a laborer with a family of seven; Omar Badshah, a taxi driver with
12 family members; Amjad Ali, a bricklayer in a family of 15, had
similar stories - all lost their jobs and homes and have to rely on
charities in the tented village.
In the holy month of Ramadan, all Muslims donate 2.5% of their total
annual savings, gold and other assets, to charity (zakat).
This is customarily done by paying the money to the central
government, which then distributes it to the poor and needy.
However, many people do not trust the government to do this
effectively, so they make direct zakat payments
either to individuals or to Islamic charities. Even these private
charities, though, don't have the capacity to rehabilitate people in
the long term. They simply arrange for food and medicine to be
delivered regularly - exactly as is happening in flood-hit areas.
These people will most likely receive assistance for a few months,
but then what happens? The government does not have the capacity -
or seemingly the will - to fully rehabilitate people. Yet people
will have to find new housing, schools, jobs; these problems are not
being discussed.
More tales of woe
Nowshera's Hospital Road was hit the hardest when the flooded Indus
River struck on July 29, with the water only receding in early
August 2. Hoti Khel, the main wholesale market, was also destroyed.
"The floods made all millionaires poorer. However, the big
wholesalers of
Hoti Khel still have money in the bank to
buy new material, and maybe after a few months they will be back
into their routine, but small shopkeepers, grocery storeowners who
earn a little, have been completely wiped out," Amanullah, owner of
Amanullah Trunk House, an aluminum trunk and cupboard maker and
seller, told Asia Times Online.
"Their sugar bags, tea, lentils and so forth have been taken by the
flood, and now they don't have the money to buy new stocks," he
said. Amanullah came from the city of Mardan, in the northwest. to
open a shop in Nowshera. He admits the buying capacity of the masses
is now very low, but he hopes the situation will return to normal in
a few months.
The flood also destroyed the District Headquarter Hospital, a symbol
of the state of Pakistan. After the water receded, watermarks could
be seen up to the ceilings. The hospital's operating theaters and
equipment were lost, including X-ray and ultrasound machines, and
drugs - all that remained was a building full of filth.
Nevertheless, patients lined up for treatment of skin diseases,
infected eyes, diarrhea and other ailments. The head of the hospital
(medical superintendent), Dr Mohammad Arshad, told Asia Times Online
that in the absence of any government assistance, international
medical and humanitarian aid organization Medicine Sans Frontieres
provided medicine. Formerstudents of
medical colleges donated equipment while the World Health
Organization helped get the hospital functional again.
The Taliban's mobilization begins
Al-Qaeda, meanwhile, has brought forward a new face in Badar Mansoor,
a Pashtun commander who has risen through the ranks of
al-Qaeda-linked militants. He has gathered a large number of
recruits for a new phase that includes spreading terror in urban
centers such as Karachi, Lahore and Quetta, where already in the
past month scores of people have been killed in suicide attacks and
targeted killings.
On Monday evening, militants carried out three blasts in Lahore. One
was at the residence of a police officer, another at Minhajul Koran
University, run by Dr Tahirul Qadri. Qadri is renowned for compiling
a fatwa (religious
decree) against al-Qaeda that was distributed in Arabic, Urdu and
English all over the world. He lives in exile in Canada.
The pattern of attacks shows that al-Qaeda aims to exploit ethnic
and sectarian divisions to create maximum friction, chaos and
anarchy.
The next step is to mobilize militants to regain a foothold in lost
territory in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa. The first and primary targets will
be the police. The aim is to terrify the police so much that very
much like in the Swat region in 2009, the police network will
collapse.
On Monday, a suicide attacker rammed an explosive-laden van into a
police station in the northwestern city of Lucky Marwat, killing at
least 19 people. The Pakistani Taliban were repulsed from this city
two years ago, and they want to return as it is close to the North
Waziristan tribal area - a militant stronghold.
Militants have also launched organized attacks on security forces
around Peshawar, the capital of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa, using
remote-controlled bombs to attack vehicles.
On Tuesday, in addition to the suicide attack in Kohat, militants
abducted the vice chancellor of Islamia College and University
Peshawar, Dr Ajmal Khan. He is a cousin of long-time anti-Islamist
and now anti-Taliban leader Asfandyar Wali Khan, the chief of the
Awami National Party that governs Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa.
The next stop is Malakand division, which includes Swat Valley and
Buner. Militant contacts told Asia Times Online that militant
leaders had already begun gathering in Mohmand Agency and would soon
go into Swat, where girls' schools are now being blown up.
General Hamid Gul, a former director general of Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), spoke to Asia Times Online about
the challenges ahead for Pakistan.
"The situation is very complex. Nobody is in a position to bring
about any change, not even the military," said Gul, who recently
joined the editorial board of directors of Veterans Today, a network
of web sites that
serves the veterans community of the US military.
"Actually, the Americans are promoting the idea of a military
takeover in Pakistan as they see a serious problem simmering in the
near future. But a military coup is impossible in the present
circumstances and the military is fully cognizant of the situation.
The Pakistan army is in a state of war as 150,000 soldiers are
deployed to confront the insurgency or handle relief operations. No
army in a state of war can afford a coup.
"Secondly, coups have always been supported by right-wing political
parties. When General Zia ul-Haq imposed martial law in 1977 and the
Pakistan People's Party vowed to take to the streets in protest, the
right wing Jamaat-e-Islami, the major supporter of the coup,
threatened the Pakistan People's Party that if its workers tried to
oppose martial law, they would be confronted on the streets.
"At the moment, the hardcore right-wing parties are dead against the
army because of its support for
the American war [on terror], so who would support a military
takeover? And without support from a strong segment of the masses, a
coup is not possible," said Gul.
"In the present [political] circumstances, the military is supposed
to have a very limited role. That is supposed to be under the
constitution ... it cannot play a political role. The best solution
is a combined role for the judiciary and the military to facilitate
a forum of elders, who would run the country under an interim
arrangement and with the help of the judiciary and the army to take
the country out of its present crisis," Gul said.
"Otherwise, the country is heading towards chaos and anarchy. In
such chaos and anarchy, sometimes the masses search out leaders who
can take them on the road of revolution. In Pakistan, if a
revolution comes, it would have to be an anti-American Islamic
revolution. And history tells us that whatever happens in this
region, its effects always trickle into Delhi," Gul warned in
reference to the capital of India.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is
Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com